SESIT Sustainable Energy Systems Integration & Transitions Group

Advancing accessible and transparent modeling for Canadians

Our mission is to provide a credible, transparent modeling platform that policymakers, researchers and civil society can use to inform climate change and energy transition policy development, advocacy, and discussion, and to serve the public discourse by providing timely objective analysis of policy announcements and political party platforms.

The first phase of our work—now underway— is the development of an innovative open-source collection of energy system and economic impact models, complemented by open data and accessible visualization tools. Once fully developed, the platform will include 8 open-source models, and we hope to add more models over time.

This initiative will build upon the University of Victoria and EMH's M3 platform, enhancing it with new models and data sources. The aim is to substantially boost the platform's capabilities, in particular enabling deeper insights into energy systems, emissions, the economy, and employment at both national and regional levels.

The second phase of the project, beginning in 2025, will offer a service for efficiently, objectively, and transparently assessing the impacts of climate and energy transition policy announcements and political platforms.

Using state-of-the-art linked energy-economy models to assess economic impacts of the energy transition

In collaboration with partners, SESIT is developing open-source energy-economy workflows which will enable transparent whole-economy pathway assessments for all provinces in Canada. This will be achieved through linking the M3 Macromodel with the M3 Platform's energy system models (currently CIMS and MESSAGEix-Canada). These energy-economy workflows will be able to comprehensively assess policies' impacts on jobs, GDP, emissions, investment, energy use and household budgets. To learn more about the M3 Macromodel, CIMS and the MESSAGEix-Canada models, please see the model descriptions on the M3 Platform website: https://m3.cme-emh.ca/open-models/.

Building an open-source platform capable of robust decarbonization analyses at a variety of spatial and sectoral scales.

Built by the Sustainable Energy Systems Integration & Transitions Group at the University of Victoria on open-source software, the M3 Modelling Platform represents multi-scale (municipal to federal), multi-sector (power, transport, buildings), and multi-vector (electricity, fuels) energy systems. It features soft coupling between components for seamless workflow management, and includes:

• Integrated Tools: Contains linkages between input data (CODERS Energy Data Portal), models across scales and sectors, and output visualizations (IDEA platform).
• Extendable and Adaptable Framework: Designed to accommodate future additions and a variety of modeling combinations to address diverse research and practical questions. See our list of models and the Open Insights projects to learn more.
• Transparent and Reproducible: Features a graphical user interface that simplifies conceptualization of the modeling workflow, enhancing transparency and reproducibility

How can collaborative efforts improve energy modeling practices and address current gaps?

The Multi-Model Comparison Forum (MMCF) is a collaborative exercise organized by the Energy Modelling Hub (EMH) where researchers come together with the aim to foster open comparison of model results and methodologies. This initiative is key in identifying data and modeling practice gaps and opportunities, and will serve as a platform for knowledge exchange among modelers, policymakers, and other stakeholders. The MMCF targets model developers and modelers, with the inclusion of model users as observers.

The forum is divided into three working groups, focused on Power System Models (WG1), broader Energy System Models (WG2) and Sector-Specific Models (WG3). We lead and participate in WG1 with our COPPER and SILVER models and utilizing our IDEA visualization platform as a comparison tool. Additionally, we participate in WG2 with our MessageIX-Canada model.

The preparations for the next round of the MMCF has already kicked off, with WG1 having an in-person workshop and presentation in early December 2024, at the EMH annual forum.

How do wind and solar resource characteristics impact operations and planning?

As wind and solar energy resources comprise an increasingly large fraction of generation, a greater understanding of VRE spatial-temporal nature is desirable for resource characterizations, grid integration analyses, and project development planning. However, freely available VRE datasets either have limited temporal resolution or spatial coverage. While commercial datasets provide improved resolution, they are costly for preliminary analyses or research applications. This project closed this gap by publishing a free web-based tool for downloading hourly, global wind and solar PV generation time series, called GRETA (Global Renewable Energy Atlas & Time-series).

Fostering a dialogue between energy system policy-makers and modellers

In collaboration with Polytechnique Montréal and the Institut de l'énergie Trottier, we launched the Energy Modelling Hub (EMH) with the goal of convening a dialogue between Canada's electricity and energy system modelling community and policy-makers. Recognizing the need to establish an energy systems modelling network, Natural Resources Canada funded several EMH initiatives, including regional workshops, a national workshop, and a series of modelling projects. The three regional workshops brought together energy system modellers and policy-makers in the western, eastern, and central parts of Canada to foster synergies and collaborations while identifying modelling activities needed to inform policy-making. Ten modelling projects, across a range of aspects of modelling and electrification topics have been funded. Our National Forum in December 2019 will build on the projects and regional workshops to develop the first Canadian modellers' vision for 2030-2050.

How do we utilize machine learning in climate policy?

Data science and machine learning techniques have revolutionized how we understand, manage, and plan complex systems, but their usage in supporting climate policy is still nascent. SESIT is at the leading edge of research that seeks to bridge that gap by exploring these methods within the context of the Canadian energy system, aiming to identify opportunities for usage of these tools to tackle longstanding challenges. Topics under study include uncertainty representation, surrogate modelling, pathway assessments, complex data structures, data accessibility, and component modelling, and more. By leveraging these methods in partnership with decision-makers, we aim to catalyze these conversations and illuminate a path forward for the development of smarter, data-driven energy futures.

What are the most feasible pathways for decarbonization in Regina?

Cities offer a tractable opportunity for renewable-based climate mitigation but face distinct challenges depending on their local economy, resources, and political climate. In sub-Saharan Africa where 65% of the population lacks access to electricity, novel solutions that do not depend on centralized infrastructure are necessary to facilitate electricity access for the bottom billion. In North America, over 50 cities are sidestepping provincial and federal climate policy gridlock by developing renewable city commitments. In this collaborative project with the David Suzuki Foundation and Dr. Brett Dolter we will explore the pathways for moving Regina to a 100% renewable city.

What are the least-cost options for Canada's sustainable energy system transition?

This collaborative project with the David Suzuki Foundation and Dr. Brett Dolter will build a credible renewable energy blueprint to achieve Canada's Paris commitment and Pan-Canadian Framework goals. To do so, this project will implement a two-step modelling methodology to leverage the spatial breadth of the CREST model as well as the temporal resolution of the SILVER model. The capacity expansion model, CREST, which takes a broad spatial and temporal perspective on the energy system transition will be used to facilitate a National dialogue on electricity system planning. The production cost model, SILVER, which represents the electricity system with greater temporal resolution, will validate the operability of potential energy system designs.

Clean Power Pathways report by David Suzuki Foundation (where our modelling work was used and credited)

Relevant academic papers to this work:

• Arjmand, R., & McPherson, M. (2022). Canada's electricity system transition under alternative policy scenarios. Energy Policy, 163, 112844. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2022.112844 (COPPER model development to get it ready for CPP modelling work)
• Saffari, M., & McPherson, M. (2022). Assessment of Canada's electricity system potential for variable renewable energy integration. Energy, 250, 123757. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2022.123757 (SILVER development to get it ready for CPP modelling work)
• Miri, M., Saffari, M., Arjmand, R., & McPherson, M. (2022). Integrated models in action: Analyzing flexibility in the Canadian power system toward a zero-emission future. Energy, 261, 125181. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2022.125181 (COPPER-SILVER linkage development)
• Seatle, M., Stanislaw, L., Xu, R., & McPherson, M. (2021). Integrated Transportation, Building, and Electricity System Models to Explore Decarbonization Pathways in Regina, Saskatchewan. Frontiers in Sustainable Cities, 3, 113. https://doi.org/10.3389/frsc.2021.674848

Planning for variable renewable energy and electric vehicle integration under varying degrees of decentralisation: a case study in Lusaka, Zambia

McPherson, M., Ismail, M., Hoornweg, D., Metcalfe, M.

Energy 151: 332-346 (2018)

Highlights: Effective electric vehicle integration policy depends on power system centralization;
Decentralized solar energy utility depends on shape or shiftablibility of load;
Electricity system planning must account for the electric vehicle charging policy;
Less than 30% renewables are operationally feasible regardless of system centralization;
System-optimized vehicle-to-grid charging substitutes large storage requirements.

The role of electricity storage and hydrogen technologies in enabling global low-carbon energy transitions

McPherson, M., Johnson, N., Strubegger, M.

Applied Energy 216: 649-661 (2018)

Highlights: Without climate policy, small storage/H2 costs enable smaller power sector emissions;
With climate policy, small storage/H2 costs reduce long-term mitigation costs;
Large-scale deployment of electricity storage only occurs when costs are small;
With large storage/H2 costs, large wind and solar PV shares can still be supported.

Deploying storage assets to facilitate variable renewable energy integration: the impacts of grid flexibility, renewable penetration, and market structure

McPherson, M., Tahseen, S.

Energy 145: 856-870 (2018)

Highlights: Storage market and grid integration is explored with a production cost model;
Alternative storage asset bid strategies and ownership structures are compared;
Storage utility depends on variable renewable penetration and system inflexibility;
Storage profitability depends on bidding mechanism and dispatch horizon.

System design and operation for integrating variable renewable energy resources through a comprehensive characterisation framework

McPherson, M., Harvey, D., Karney, B.

Renewable Energy 113: 1019-1032 (2017)

Highlights: Development of VRE characterization metrics according to integration requirements;
Application of charcaterization metrics in a unit commitment dispatch model;
Evaluation of VRE resources according to integration requirements;
Flexiblity and strategic resource aggregation minimizes integration requirements.

A scenario-based approach to designing electricity grids with high variable renewable energy penetrations in Ontario, Canada: development and application of the SILVER Model

McPherson, M., Karney, B.

Energy 138: 185-196 (2017)

Highlights: A new scenario-based production cost model entitled SILVER is proposed;
Flexibility requirements for a 100% renewable electricity system are quantified;
Distinct remuneration structures drive demand response and storage deployment;
System flexibility and market design interdependence motivates integrated planning.

An open-access web-based tool to access global, hourly wind and solar PV generation time-series derived from the MERRA reanalysis dataset

McPherson, M., Sotiropoulos-Michalakakos, T., Harvey, D., Karney, B.

Energies 10: 1007 (2017)

Highlights: The Global Renewable Energy Atlas & Time-series (GRETA) web platform is introduced;
GRETA produces hourly wind and solar PV generation time series globally;
GRETA is a freely website platform available at http://energy.greta.tech/;
GRETA can facilitate a wide variety of renewable energy assessments.

A reduced-form approach for representing the impacts of wind and solar PV deployment on the structure and operation of the electricity system

Johnson, N., Strubegger, M., McPherson, M., Parkinson, S., Krey, V., Sullivan, P.

Energy Economics 64: 651-664 (2017)

Highlights: VRE integration challenges can be parameterized using residual load duration curves;
These challenges can be represented in global integrated assessment models;
Integration challenges do not impede large shares of electricity generation from VRE;
Electricity storage and H2 technologies are crucial for integrating large VRE shares.

Long-term scenario alternatives and their implications: LEAP mode application of Panama's electricity sector

McPherson, M., Karney, B.

Energy Policy 68: 146-157 (2014)

Highlights: This paper models Panama's electricity sector using the LEAP model platform;
Four scenarios are developed and analyzed;
Impact analysis includes: system cost, global warming potential, resource diversity index;
Panama can achieve a sustainable grid with existing technologies and costs;
There is an tradeoff between the resource diversity and global warming potential.